WET PATTERN CONTINUING

Forecast models are in strong agreement on the overall upper-level pattern across North America during the 6–10 day period. A ridge of high pressure is expected to dominate the eastern United States, bringing above-normal heights across much of the country east of the Rocky Mountains. The strongest ridge signal is centered over Ontario, Canada.

Meanwhile, a disturbance moving across the western United States will gradually shift toward the Great Plains later in the period. This system will help maintain lower heights and a more unsettled pattern across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin.

Across Alaska, the pattern is expected to transition from early-period troughing toward increasing ridging over eastern portions of the state. Lower heights are expected to persist over the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. Near-normal heights are favored across much of Alaska and Hawaii overall.

Temperature Outlook

Above-normal temperatures are strongly favored across nearly all of the contiguous United States east of the Rockies. The strongest signals are across portions of the Upper Midwest, where probabilities exceed 80%.

In contrast, cooler-than-normal conditions are favored across much of the Southwest and Great Basin, where the influence of upper-level troughing increases the potential for below-normal temperatures.

Across Alaska, temperatures are generally expected to remain near normal, although eastern portions of the mainland and Southeast Alaska may trend warmer as ridging builds later in the period. Above-normal temperatures are also favored across Hawaii.

Precipitation Outlook

The primary weather system during this period is expected to be an area of low pressure developing across the Southwest before tracking eastward across the Rocky Mountains. Additional tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific, potentially associated with Hurricane Trudy, could contribute to this system.

Above-normal precipitation is favored across much of the Interior West and into the Great Plains. Probabilities gradually decrease farther east toward the Mississippi Valley. Despite this signal, precipitation amounts and impacts will vary by location.

Farther east, the influence of upper-level ridging and surface high pressure favors drier-than-normal conditions across the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and portions of the Gulf Coast.

Across Alaska, above-normal precipitation is favored as early-period troughing and an active storm track bring additional opportunities for precipitation, particularly around the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. Above-normal precipitation is also forecast for Hawaii.

Forecast Confidence

Confidence: Above average — 4 out of 5

Forecast confidence is above average due to strong agreement among the major ensemble models regarding the overall upper-level pattern across the contiguous United States. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and evolution of weather systems over the North Pacific.

The 6–10 day outlook describes probabilities relative to climatological averages, not guaranteed conditions for any individual location.